This report, produced under the USAID-funded FHM Engage project which was implemented by Results for Development (R4D) and partners, with technical analysis and modeling led by Metrics for Management (M4M), introduces a new approach to estimating family planning market size in Tanzania. By applying innovative small area estimation techniques and combining data from multiple sources, the report provides subnational insights into contraceptive use, demand and market value. It offers detailed maps, product-specific estimates, and projections of potential private sector growth, giving stakeholders — from social marketers to policymakers — practical tools for decision-making.

This resource provides actionable market intelligence to identify opportunities, target investments, and improve access to modern contraceptives. It also highlights a replicable methodology that can be applied in other countries and health sectors where granular market data is lacking.

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Dr. Bear has contributed to global market shaping and scale-up efforts since the early 2000s, beginning with GAVI’s PneumoADIP and the Hib Initiative, where she co-led the country support mechanism, providing technical assistance to Ministries of Health for vaccine rollout and impact evaluation. At USAID (2009–2015), she led the development of flagship U.S. Government health initiatives — including the Global Health Initiative, Ending Preventable Child and Maternal Deaths Action Plan, and the Global Health Security Agenda. While based in Bangladesh and Mali, she oversaw catalytic investments in cold chain systems, digital health, health workforce, and governance. She collaborated closely with ministries to co-design frameworks for scaling high-impact interventions as part of national health sector strategies.

From 2016 to 2019, Dr. Bear led strategic and evaluative work that shaped major global health investments. She revised USAID’s maternal and child health investment frameworks to align with the SDGs, evaluated its flagship maternal and child health program, and designed a $1B successor strategy. She also led evaluation of the $3.5B Feed the Future nutrition portfolio, providing evidence that informed its Congressional reauthorization. Her advisory work includes digital health evaluations, such as a telecom-based health insurance product in Bangladesh that informed regional scale-up strategies. From 2019 to 2024, she led global portfolios managing integrated development programs across 25–45 countries, overseeing teams of 500–1,650 staff.

Dr. Bear holds degrees in social policy (BS, Northwestern) and public health (MPH, DrPH, Johns Hopkins). She has lived and worked for over a decade in Burkina Faso, Mali, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Palestine. She is fluent in French (professional) and English (native), and currently resides in Baltimore, Maryland.

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She is the managing director of Impact Futures Global, a senior fellow at Results for Development (R4D) and the host of the Digital Decisions Podcast. She has spent the majority of her thirty year career at the intersection of global development and technology, dedicated to the idea that everyone in the world should have access to trusted digital tools that make life better. This ethos drove her to found the Digital Impact Alliance, a “think, do, replicate” tank in 2016 that was at the vanguard of encouraging the development sector to take a holistic approach to digital public infrastructure and data over bespoke national systems. Kate stepped down as CEO in January, 2023 and is currently working on a book on the intersection of digital public infrastructure and artificial intelligence in addition to her consulting work.

Prior to founding the Digital Impact Alliance, Kate worked for the global health nonprofit PATH, where she founded and led its Digital Health Solutions group for nine years, working with more than thirty countries, primarily in Asia and Africa, on developing national enterprise architectures and strong policy governance frameworks. Before she joined PATH, Kate worked primarily in the private sector at techology companies including General Electric, Intel and Microsoft where she held various strategy, product and business development roles including introducing the then-new gaming platform Xbox Live to Europe. It was during her eight years at Microsoft where she internalized the value of how a well-built technology platform could be built once and scaled globally. That philosophy — a base of solid engineering, safety, and security upon which multiple innovative, life-enhancing applications can be deployed — is at the heart of the work of global digital transformation.

She currently serves on the Advisory Board of Exchange Design, an AI startup in the development space.

Kate holds an M.B.A. and an M.A. in Southeast Asian studies from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and a B.A. in international relations from the College of William and Mary. She speaks Bahasa Indonesia at a basic level and French certified at B1.3 level.

Publications

• Digital Impact Alliance: Impact Statement
• OECD: Shaping a Just Digital Transformation
• CSIS: Enabling a robust functional digital ID podcast
• Blog: Is there a recipe for digital transformation?
• Talking DPI Podcast: The role of governments in DPI
• People Centered Internet/IEEE: Moderator and Chair of 50th Anniversary celebration and host of AI panel

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Fozia is a program officer and market shaping specialist at Results for Development (R4D). She is deeply engaged in phase two of the Ethiopia Market Shaping Capacity Improvement Program (EMSCIP) providing vital support to the EPSS. In this role, she is responsible for a range of critical supply chain functions including institutionalizing the market-shaping strategy, conducting market analysis, developing forecasting and supplier assessment tools, and mentoring/coaching EPSS personnel to implement these strategies effectively. Alongside this work, Fozia also engaged in the first phase of EMSCIP collaborating with Ethiopia’s Ministry of Health and delivering emergency supply chain training, developing a supply chain emergency guideline document, distribution protocols for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, donation protocols and working on the revitalization of the national emergency task force.

Fozia served as the Chief of Staff at the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Agency (EPSA) Director General Office. During her tenure, she played a pivotal role in supporting the Director General’s office, utilizing her exceptional organizational skills and leadership abilities to ensure smooth operations and effective decision-making.

She also served as the HIV/TB & Malaria Quantification and Market Shaping Team Leader at the EPSA. In this capacity, she demonstrated her expertise in quantification and market-shaping strategies for HIV, TB, and Malaria programs, contributing to efficient product availability and distribution.

Throughout her career, Fozia has held various positions at EPSA, including Warehouse Management & Inventory Management Officer III, Transit Officer I, Procurement Officer III, and Medical Equipment Surveillance Officer III. These roles have provided her with comprehensive knowledge and hands-on experience in supply chain management and pharmaceutical operations.

Fozia holds a master’s degree in logistics and supply chain management from Addis Ababa University and a bachelor’s degree in pharmacy.

Additional Resources

Analysis of laboratory logistics management information system for HIV/AIDS commodities in selected public health facilities in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa University, School of Commerce 2019

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